Avian Bird Flu Information

Computers Consultants Cash in on Contagious Bird Flu

2007-10-08T00:12:00.000-07:00

Finally computer consultants can cash in on the contagious finanical gains from bid flu.

"Computer Grids have achieved a productivity increase of more than 6000% in the identification of potential new drugs" says Ulf Dahlsten, Director of “Emerging Technologies and Infrastructures” in the Information Society and Media Directorate-General of the European Commission.

This combination of computing power and potential drug company revenue paves the golden path for a corresponding increase in investment into the profitable health sector.

Imagine harnessing the power of 40,000 computers to solve the riddle of bird flu though only to find the goalpost has moved, with a new strain of Bid Flu. Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin-Madison has found that the H5N1 virus has mutated to a new strain.

Whilst the cynical could point to the neverending increase in funding required for these activities. First to crack the code, second to discover the code has changed, next to crack the code.... and so on the money flows.

With enough computers we can solve this - Sciencedaily.com/

Oops the virus has mutated again - Sciencedaily.com/bc-britain-birdflu.xml

Bird Flu in Australia - Crikey Mate

2007-03-14T23:16:00.000-07:00

The dumb things scientists do and not from wild birds lies the biggest risk of getting Bird Flu.

Who could imagine tinkering with the world's most deadly disease and forgetting to check your suit - not once, not by one person but three scientists.

Yes you read this right - a suit without a air filter, shared by three scientists who did not notice. All while working with infected ducks infected with a SouthEast Asian strain of the avian flu.

'No worries mate' in true Australian crocodile hunter style; they sent all the scientists home to see what would happen.

The three are back at work now - that is the scientists not the ducks - I understand the ducks are Ok too.

Lucky there is plenty of water between here and Australia.

www.abc.net.au/news
www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article
Bird flu information

To Tamiflu or Not to Tamiflu

2006-10-22T23:32:00.000-07:00

With Avian bird flu about to awaken from it's annual sleep cycle what is the best approach for protection. Is it to inoculate now 'priming' the immune systems of potential victims such as taking place in Asia. Or to stockpile anti-viral drugs ready for a pandemic outbreak - the Swedish example.

And just what will happen if the world stockpile of two-day lasting Tamiflu (Oseltamivir phosphate) is suddenly ingested by the healthy population.

Given that most of the drug taken at commencement of a pandemic will be excreted and find it's way into the sewer systems and eventually the worlds waterways, what effect will that have on the bird population using those waterways.

Is it conceivable that the success of preventing the first pandemic using anti-viral drugs will ultimately lead to a more devastating pandemic in subsequent years due to drug resistant mutations occurring - like those expected today.

What other damage and mutations will this widespread environmental dispersal of Tamiflu cause.

Research on collateral damage reported by Medical Newstoday

Swedish Stockpile Tamiflu

Bird Flu Symptoms

US Blinks First in Bird Flu Standoff

2006-09-09T22:22:00.000-07:00

U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (an agency of the US Department of Health and Human Services) says it 'regrets the recent delays in the transfer of avian influenza virus samples...' according to The Peoples Daily Online. Apparently China have offered birdflu virus samples to the CDC to help further research but their offer has been stonewalled by paperwork and bureaucracy.

Internet media sources had placed their wager on the cause of the standoff, now blamed on paperwork and procedures, on China, citing the SARS virus outbreak and other delays in receiving virus samples.

The CDC it is claimed though, goes on to say 'it appreciates the willingness of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture to share the virus samples'. This reads like some serious wordsmithing.

Even with this almost apology, it took Chinese news stories claiming American labs was the cause of the delay to force a response and action from the CDC.

So why then the delay, did the CDC really stonewall the importation of virus samples from China, if so why?.

More on the blame game
More on h5n1 bird flu

Biota - How to Lose Money on Bird Flu

2006-09-07T17:40:00.000-07:00

Australia based Biota pulled revenues of $5.2m in royalties from the bird flu drug Relenza.

Unfortunately their battle with Glaxo Smith Kline has cost $8m over the last two years leaving meagre pickings for shareholders with yet another an annual net loss in excess of $10m.

Just how is it that in times of a pandemic of news and fear spreading, with governments speeding millions on vaccines for avian flu protection, can an organisation involved in bird flu vaccines be so successful at throwing away shareholder funds?

More from The Age

India - Leads with Bird Flu and Call Centers

2006-08-28T01:50:00.000-07:00

Following the move from obscurity to superiority worldwide in technology based call centers, India has moved to stake a claim in the lucrative world of vaccine.

Competing with the likes of multi-billion dollar Roche and in just 6-months, a low cost bird flu vaccine.

At a predicted 35 paise retail per dose (US$ 0.65) and with six months protection the $160 million investment appears to have paved the way for bird vaccination instead of eradication.

More on India's own bird flu vaccine at just 35 paise from DailyIndia.com

BirdFlu Like a Dell Notebook

2006-08-22T22:46:00.000-07:00

Just as uncomfortable as a Dell notebook sitting in your lap waiting for the exploding battery to wake you up. .. lock up your battery birds the bird flu is about to hit the news fan again.

Migrating birds flying into Turkey in October last year marked the first signs of H5N1 spreading. Not Turkeys of course but migrating birds putting at risk the poultry battery hens we all want to protect.

Vaccinate them all now is the bleat from the flock of Nature Observers Association (NOA) members, no mention of an Ark though.

Has anyone really considered the logistics of vaccinating every friendly bird in the world and who decides the bad ones - well Dell are recalling all the laptops?

http://www.zaman.com/?bl=national&alt=&hn=35900

Breeding Bird Flu Test Fails

2006-08-02T02:54:00.000-07:00

Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), have tried to combine a common human flu virus with H5N1 Avian bird flu and have failed to make it spread.

You can read about this study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, August 2.

Whilst some could argue the sense in tinkering with deadly viruses to try to make a human spreadable version, at least this experiment goes some of the way to reducing the fear propaganda used by large corporates to line their pockets with our hard-earned cash.

More on the story from Medical News Today
More on Bird Flu Symptoms

ICAR Have Bird Flu Vaccine

2006-07-17T13:06:00.000-07:00

Latest news on Bird Flu vaccines for H5N1 advises that India is about to cash in on the potential pandemic.

"The Indian Council of Agriculture Research says it has developed a vaccine against bird flu. It said the Animal Disease Laboratory in Bhopal developed the vaccine in a record time of four months.The vaccine is aimed at fighting H5N1 virus and the spread of bird flu within the same species, but independent scientists have not yet verified it."

Adding to the being the call centre captial of the IT world your syringe could be just a FexEx away.

Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America

2006-05-21T18:09:00.000-07:00

It was only a matter of time before the bird flu pandemic hit the silver screens.

Biohazard suits, African villagers dead you can imagine the plot with a touch of reality following wide spread publicity about the H5N1 virus.

In Pennsylvania the Health Secretary has even timed the launch of a new web site on the Avian pandemic with the expected release of the film.

Expect more confusion now as people consider whether the threat from birdflu is real or just hype.

Reuters, on the birdflu movie

Y2k Bug with Feathers - Bird Flu

2006-03-01T22:55:00.000-08:00

Like the ripples from a stone dropped in a pool on a still day, the resounding echoes of Bird Flu spread ever outward.

Growing daily like a rolling snowball into a billion dollar industry. Driving fear into the hearts of the layperson whilst the medical industry like a stealthy pickpocket, empties the punters pockets of their hard earned cash as attention is distracted.

Since 1918 we have know the impact of an H5N1 outbreak, since 1918 we have been vulnerable, since 1918 though, nothing has changed. Still no mutation, still no pandemic, still plenty of other things to worry about.

Remember Mad Cows, SARS, Global Warming, Fossil Fuels, Year 2000 bug? All have one thing in common as a starting point.

Money. Starting with a random comment published one day, one of thousands each month, that the public shows interest in. All made simple to analyze and detect through Internet search monitoring.

In first ripple of impact the issue escalates based on public interest to generate interviews and opinions of scientists. Scientists need funding to continue to do what they do. Funding follows fear, finally a return for research satisfying public thirst for information. Opinions are sought, the most newsworthy (translate valuable) being reported.

In the second ripple of impact the manufacturing chemists, vaccine makers the rainmakers, look for their angle. The carrot of hope for funding in advance of delivering a usable product. The Nirvana for companies that struggle with low return rates from high investment. Again more media commentary and public hope based on further cures for a non-existent pandemic. The crazier the news story the more who read it, the greater the fear, reinforcing the original concept.

In the third ripple everyone joins in the melee. Consultants to advise on actions to take to protect the corporate world. Project managers to implement risk mitigation strategies. Stock exchanges to encourage trading into bird flu safe stocks. Pharmacies to provide stocks of anything related to flu. Herbal remedies, religious instructions, military mobilization, undertakers, hospitals. Governments throw money to be sure of no blame.

Even that old faithful Nostradamus, that French physician & astrologer, a rhymed predictor of ambiguous phrases, gets wheeled out of his pyramid sarcophagus and the prophecies are expounded again to his intellectually vacuumous minions.

There is no bird flu pandemic. Just like there was no Year 2000 shutdown of the world, nor millions with mad cow disease, nor SARS spreading around the world, nor running out of petrol for cars, nor sea levels rising and drowning us all.

Reference

Avian Bird Flu Facts

Do not Fear the Bird Flu

2006-01-30T23:57:00.000-08:00

The avian bird flu is not your biggest concern in a pandemic outbreak, instead it is the people. Rational behavior will quickly disappear along with law and order should a flu pandemic spread worldwide.

So you have managed to stockpile a few boxes of Tamiflu and probably told a few of your friends. Just how do you think you will repel their attempts to gain access to your medicine where it is a life-or-death situation?

What about food? The initial panic buying at supermarkets will quickly clear warehouses of all the necessities, imperishable food, batteries, water, and drugs. The police will be powerless to help, outnumbered 100's to one, and with their own families to consider. Even the hospitals, overwhelmed with flu infected sick and dying people will have people trying to jump the queue.

Bought a weapon to protect yourself? Just remember, so has everyone else. Expect gangs of weapon wielding irrational people, roaming the streets looking for anything that offers hope. Think you will be safe in your full biohazard suit, sure, until someone without one rips a hole in it.

Watch for Vietnam or china to show us how bad this can get, like some morbid science fiction movie.

At the end of the day you either survive or not, but no one wins.

British Bio Hazard Suits for all

Avian Bird Flu Information

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Bird flu Bumbling in New Zealand

2006-01-21T00:32:00.000-08:00

An opportunity to demonstrate avian bird flu preparedness in New Zealand yesterday failed to impress. Arriving from Australia, a Philippines visitor outwardly showing symptoms of viral infection was tagged by staff as possible risk.

So far so good, then it all went wrong. Within a short space of time the passenger was ?cleared? for release claiming he only had ?regular flu?.

Now I?m not sure what tests the New Zealand authorities have but this is pretty impressive to be able to prove non-existence of avian bird flu with just an ambulance driver performing the tests. Perhaps the rest of the world would benefit from access to this superb test.

More likely guess work was used to assume that the bird flu virus was not raging through the veins of this patient. Remember that the actual symptoms of avian bird flu will not established until a pandemic breaks due to mutation of the virus. In other words the symptoms today are unknown.

What an irresponsible risk to New Zealand though with a plane full of passengers exposed to breath of this person being immediately released into the public areas and to other flights.

If this had been the real deal, the damage could not be undone.

References:
nzherald.co.nz
Bird flu symptoms
Avian bird flu

Sauerkraut, Kimchi & Avian Bird Flu

2006-01-05T19:06:00.000-08:00

At a time when access to bird flu antiviral medicines is being denied by legislation and short supply, a new entrant emerges claiming potential to reduce the impact of avian flu. The difference is that this possible cure is readily available and at a low cost for all.

Leuconostoc Kimchii or Kimchi lactic acid bacteria have been tested on bird flu infected chickens claiming recovery from the virus according to one source.

The Kimchi, a Korean fermented cabbage meal similar to the pickled cabbage Sauerkraut dish is claimed to have aided recovery of 11 out of 13 chickens in tests during November 2005.

Though the scientific merits of curing avian bird flu with cabbage have certainly not been proven, nor are we likely to see millions spent on development given the potential lack of return for drug companies - it is probably a simple measure to gain essential vitamins to protect against viral infection.

References
The Seoul Times Comment
Clevelandnews

Sinovac Scores Big with Bird Flu Vaccine

2005-12-26T16:17:00.000-08:00

Dec 27: Sinovac announces clinical trials of a potential vaccine for avian bird flu. Allowed by the Chinese to fast-track human testing this is exciting news for the company shareholders.

It is too easy to be fooled into thinking a cure is here, remember that the announcements come as company PR press releases rather than from the scientific community.

This company in country being hit economically by bad publicity over virus spread is a shining light for the government spreading good news on China for a change.

Sinovac, masters of working the press and government, have recently scored RMB 7 million worth of funding from China's Ministry of Science and Technology. This is in addition to over US$1 million in government funding received in 2004.

Notable is the timing
Dec 12 Reaped RMB 7 million of funding
Dec 21 Announcement of vaccine ready for trials
Dec 21 Government approval to fast track human testing to only two phases

Panflu possibly a combination of Anflu - translated from Chinese into English as "If you live in safe, you are very lucky" does not instill faith into the capability of the vaccine. However cashing in on a shorter sharper established Tamiflu marketing brand will be of benefit.

Is this really the pandemic cure we all hope for, or merely a PR exercise for China?

References:

Sinovac Company Overview
PRNnewswire
China CSR Sinovac_biotech
Bird flu information

Bird flu virus in Leaky Aerosol Chamber?

2005-12-16T18:56:00.000-08:00

Complacency grows with widespread use of scientific samples of the H5N1 bird flu virus.

New Zealand has announced intentions to import and tinker with the virus at a research laboratory in Wallaceville, in the interests of science of course, according to the director of Biosecurity New Zealand.

What is alarming about this announcement is that the facility at Wallaceville is only rated to Biological Safety Level BSL 3.

Just last year the world experienced laboratory infection spread from so called safety labs when a leaky aerosol chamber manufactured by the University of Wisconsin at Madison was responsible for three laboratory-acquired tuberculosis infections in a Seattle BSL-3 lab last year.

The same Madison chamber in use in the New Zealand BSL 3+ facility, full of seals and "O rings" made in the USA.

Do scientists tinkering with viruses and vaccines themselves; pose the real risk of mutating avian influenza?

Aerosal leaks in BSL containment
Ministry of Health New Zealand
Biological safety levels BSL 1 BSL2 BSL 3 BSL 4
Avian flu information

Chinese Brewing Benzene and Bird Flu

2005-12-10T20:13:00.000-08:00

With 100 tonnes of deadly cancer causing Benzene spilling into water supplies for millions of Chinese, consideration should be given to the impact on H5N1 bird flu mutation.

Mutant cancer causing cells created by Benzene, when mixed with the current H5N1 avian bird flu strain, not yet deadly for humans, but themselves awaiting mutation to create a human pandemic, make for a deadly movie plot type scenario.

Surely the Chinese would not have caused this scenario to eradicate a hidden bird flu epidemic by poisoning millions of people. Yet the Chinese stories have some flaws, so far we have;
- A chemical plant explosion
- A truck crash filled with chemicals (ten truckloads)
- A dam wall break that was holding back chemicals

The Chinese government is however adamant there will be no cover-up and that they will punish severely any attempt to do this. Mysteriously though a senior official who told reporters that the explosion didn't cause any pollution has reportedly been found dead.

All is not what it seems here.

Reference:
Isn.ethz.ch/news
Leadingthecharge.com/stories
Chinapost.com
Bird flu information

California Thinking Clear on Bird Flu

2005-12-02T13:04:00.000-08:00

California's Department of Health Services is taking action to encourage physicians not to dispense Tamiflu to patients.

The effects of this will be two fold, first allowing the state to maintain its stockpile of Tamiflu, second to prevent creating a possible breeding ground for avian influenza H5N1 through resistance to the drug in humans from overuse.

It's a gamble either way for the public, trust the officials or every man for himself.

Given the west coast being a prime target for the first port of call for bird flu due to it providing a gateway for travel to Asian countries it is however good to see officials taking charge.

Also in news from North California, the supposed bird flu found in turkeys whilst technically bird flu, is not the H5N1 strain that everyone is concerned about. Still makes a good news scare though.

References:
Bird flu information
Daily bulletin
MSN

Bird Flu Triggers Next Stock Market Crash

2005-11-29T17:28:00.000-08:00

Airlines are likely to be the first hit from avian birdflu as borders and travel grind to a halt. The flow on effect into economies will be massive as restrictions are place on people, whether self-imposed or by regulation.

The worldwide share markets will commence dumping shares in the most affected markets, starting with travel. Large investors already have action plans waiting for the signal, likely to come from China with avian influenza mutation already reported.

But, it is not the large investors that will suffer given the resources they have to be prepared, the first to exit can bank their cash, instead it is the small investor that will suffer. To jump out now or wait is key decision.

Profiting from Pandemic
According to an Australian news source large investors are being prepared now to bail out of bird flu exposed shares.

Citygroup, a large worldwide investment firm has taken this to the extreme, in advising clients not only to reduce risk, also how to profit from a pandemic.

Risk mitigation strategies around the unknown timing of bird flu spread in humans, could trigger a stock market crash ahead of any outbreak, based on the actions of few large investors.

Is this the time to review alternative investments to shares, before the big boys bail?

Report on Citygroup's investor advice
Bird Flu Information

New Zealand Bans Tamiflu Importing & Sales

2005-11-25T15:51:00.000-08:00

South Pacific country New Zealand has laws that actually make illegal the importation of Tamiflu a key drug for supressing the avian bird flu spread.

New Zealand's Medsafe principal technical adviser says that "Tamiflu was a prescription medicine and it was illegal for individuals to import prescription medicines."

At the same time the New Zealander public are being refused the ability to purchase the anti-viral drug Tamiflu through pharmacy or chemist, the legal option, until May next year.

How does this support the global fight to prevent avian bird flu h5n1 virus becoming a worldwide pandemic?

More on this ....
Manawatustandard
tvnz.co.nz

AIDS Bird Flu Mutation - Nightmare Scenario or Movie Plot?

2005-11-19T00:28:00.000-08:00

Flu experts worry that the Bird flu could readily mutate into a pandemic form when it infects people with AIDS.

Expert Speaks Out
A BBC report discloses that Dr. Robert Webster a U.S. flu expert said at a conference in New York City that it is possible people with AIDS can harbor the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, which would give it the opportunity to become better adapted - and more dangerous - to humans.

Possibly the crisis scenario could be realized when the H5N1 virus reaches East Africa, where many people have HIV/AIDS.

When the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus infects people with HIV/AIDS, those who have weakened immune systems ? the virus could become better adapted and dangerous to humans

St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis said because those with the HIV virus have depressed immune systems, the avian H5N1 virus would make them much more susceptible, and prime breeding grounds for a deadly adaptation of bird flu.

The Scenario
Earlier this month, Pulitzer Prize-winning health journalist Laurie Garrett explained a scary theory about how HIV and the bird flu virus would interact.

It is claimed that the H5N1 virus kills by over-stimulating cytokines in the immune system, many of which are suppressed by HIV infection. Following this line of reasoning this means that people with HIV-related immune dysfunction will survive the bird flu infection. In turn leading to a breeding ground for H5N1 in surviving patients, allowing the flu virus to mutate and adapt.

In this scenario, the HIV+ person becomes the mixing pot, growing and spreading new forms of the virus.

Bird flu Spread Map

Reference: news.webindia123.com

China Export - Gains from Bird Flu

2005-11-16T16:04:00.000-08:00

A star-shaped fruit called Star Anise of a small oriental tree holds the key to unlocking Tamiflu production. According to a Roche presentation 13 grams of Star Anise can produce enough shikimic acid, a raw material for 10 capsules of oseltamivir (Tamiflu).

So as world demand for the anti-viral Tamiflu rises so does the demand for Shikimic acid. It is argued that treatment of the world population will be constrained by the availability of Star Anise.

Already the price of shikimic acid from China has soared to more than $400 a kilogram, from just $40.

Star Anise has been used in oriental cooking for thousands of years as it?s pungent, liquorice flavour, and it was introduced into Europe in the 17th Century in baked goods and in the making of fruit jams.

More from Reuters

Teen Deaths - Tamiflu Cause or Cure?

2005-11-13T21:15:00.000-08:00

Tamiflu medicine tied to teen deaths and strange behavior as two Japanese newspapers report abnormal reactions to the drug.

One, a 17-year-old high school boy took one Tamiflu capsule at his home in Gifu Prefecture in February 2004 after being diagnosed with influenza. It is reported that while his family members were away from home, he left the house wearing pajamas even though it was snowing at the time, jumped over a guardrail near his home, and was hit by an oncoming truck and died.

The other a 14-year-old junior high school boy also took a Tamiflu capsule at his home in Aichi Prefecture in February 2005 after he was diagnosed with the flu. About two hours later, he was found dead lying on the ground in front of the condominium where he lived. His fingerprints were found on a handrail on the ninth floor of the complex, leading police investigators to suspect that he plunged to his death.

Besides these fatal cases, a teenage girl attempted to jump from a window two days after taking Tamiflu, but her mother managed to stop her. (Source Mainichi). The teen youths had never shown any abnormal behavior before they took Tamiflu.

The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry of Japan have confirmed the cause of death of at least one of the boys was the result of side-effects from the drug.

Doctor, Rokuro Hama, who heads the Japan Institute of Pharmacovigilance for Evidence-Based Healthcare, will apparently report the details of their deaths in a session of the Japanese Society for Pediatric Infectious Diseases in Tsu, Mie Prefecture.

Alarmingly the Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency in Japan reports 64 cases of psychological disorders linked to the drug (Tamiflu) between fiscal 2000 and 2004. A similar quantity to the number of people who have died from Avian influenza recently.

In Japan the Tamiflu carries a warnings of possible impaired consciousness, abnormal behavior, hallucinations, and other psychological and neurological symptoms.

Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., the importer distributor of Tamiflu produced by drug giant Roche, is claimed to have reported the incident to the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry, saying that the possibility that the medicine caused this odd behavior cannot be ruled out.

References

Manichi Daily News
Japan Times

Birdflu Symptoms

Bird Flu Pandemic: Kills by Cytokine Storm?

2005-11-10T02:00:00.000-08:00

According to the New England Journal of Medicine, during the 1918 pandemic strain of avian flu more than half the deaths occurred paradoxically among largely healthy people between 18 and 40 years of age.

The cause of death being a virus-induced cytokine storm that led to the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

This cytokine storm occurs when the lungs are under attack from a virus and the body's T-cells are activated. These cells migrate to the lungs to attack the microbes but they also initiate a second immune system attack called a "cytokine storm". This surge of chemicals causes lung inflammation and when severe can seriously harm or even kill the patient.

Click on the graphic to view an animation of the cytokine storm in action.

So where in the millions of dollar being spent on bird flu preparation, is the research on traditional and alternative products able to reduce the impact of the cytokine storm immune response?

References:

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/352/18/1839
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn4293

Avian flu information

Resistant Bird Flu Growing in Vietnam - Helped by Drugs

2005-11-09T13:25:00.000-08:00

Congratulations to Vietnam for being approved and licensed as a producer of Tamiflu or Oseltamivir a neuraminidase inhibitor.

Roche Holding AG the sole patent for holders for Tamiflu who once stated that the manufacture of Tamiflu an avian bird flu inhibitor was too complex to allow others to produce it, has now granted permission to a third world country. news.bbc.co.uk

Serious problems here though, as there are already Tamiflu resistant H5N1 strains of birdflu appearing, according to William Chui, honorary associate professor with the department of pharmacology at the Queen Mary Hospital in Hong Kong. Chui has also said general viral resistance to Tamiflu is growing in Japan, where doctors habitually prescribe the drug to fight the common influenza.

We've already seen other antibiotics made useless because they were prescribed for illnesses they can't even treat such as colds. Now, with the possibility of a major flu pandemic, we're facing the loss of the effectiveness of the very antiviral drug many nations are stockpiling to treat it.

Worse that this it has become common practice in third world countries to overuse anti viral drugs, even resorting to feeding the drugs in the drinking water of poultry.

Once Vietnam has the capability to produce vast quantities of Tamiflu, how long will the symptoms of a resistant strain of avian bird flu take to appear?

England a soft target for bird flu

2005-10-31T12:53:00.000-08:00

Almost a month after the avian flu infected parrot died in British quarantine the Environment secretary has finally announced a tightening of the rules for quarantine.

The blame game has finished now with no answers to the question how did these parrots get infected. Taiwan was high on the British shoot first ask questions later approach to finding the source of infection. Of course this later proved to be incorrect.

So after being unable to find the source of infection, and after a month of twiddling thumbs waiting for the answers, some action is being taken.

The problem is that a months delay it too long in a pandemic outbreak to take action.

References:
Times online
ePolitix

Dead Parrot Outsmarts Abysmal British Quarantine

2005-10-29T01:00:00.000-07:00

An infected parrot being fed and watered at a British quarantine facility has been found to have H5N1 avian bird flu and been killed.

Whilst this gives the appearance that the quarantine system works, the reality is that the system failed. You see the British traced back the origin of the parrot to Suriname a South American location, surprisingly a location without avian bird flu.

So shaky is the actual inter-quarantine facilities that blame was placed on poor Taiwan since they have bird flu and Taiwanese birds were in quarantine at the time. Ignoring the how part of spreading infection between quarantined species, that Taiwan farm has been tested and found clear of avian bird flu.

So where did the parrots avian bird influenza originate? Guess what, no one knows.

You can only imagine the behind the scenes lax British quarantine security that allows animals from different shipments to intermingle, creating a cross contamination mixing pot that has proven to defeat the intention of quarantine.

Consider also the inept British investigation team that without any facts immediately blamed an innocent country for their infections, only to be caught short. You see from their own records the dead infected birds arrived on September 16th, and the Taiwan birds on the 27th September, so this scenario was never going to work.

Don't these people watch CSI, my 10 year old daughter could have figured that one out!

Given the competency demonstrated the quarantine facilities should be closed immediately and all imports of animals ceased to protect the British public.

References:
english.www.gov.tw/TaiwanHeadlines/index.jsp?categid=10&recordid=87575
www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2005/10/26/afx2299150.html
www.thetidenews.com/article.aspx?qrDate=10/28/2005&qrTitle=H5N1%20bird%20flu%20strain%20found%20in%20dead%20parrot
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ns.html

China to mutate killer bird flu virus first

2005-10-23T22:18:00.000-07:00

All eyes are on China as the breading ground for the mutation of the bird flu virus.

Virus hunter Dr. Guan Yi and his team the discoverers of masked palm civet, raccoon dog and hog badger as SARS carriers are to set-up operations in China.

They have already recorded about 20 mutations of H5N1 and believe that the overuse of vaccines in China and Vietnam make these locations prime candidates for a pandemic mutation.

Expert Dr. Guan advises a solution to the pandemic threat by killing the entire domestic bird population.

According to Dr. Guan, many mammalian influenza viruses have already mastered the tricky secret of passing easily from person to person. The ideal strategy for the A(H5N1) virus would be to infect a person already carrying a human influenza virus and then swap genetic material with it. Because pigs can readily carry human and avian influenza viruses, they could also be the mixing vessels for a new virus.

References:

CTV News

ThinkQuest

Corporates Cash-in on Costly Bird Flu

2005-10-20T16:54:00.000-07:00

We have seen the companies selling products purported to cure bird flu despite a virulent form of the virus not yet mutated to affect humans. Roche shares will certainly be doing well for Tamiflu sales even without any claims from the manufacturer the product can cure the expected bird flu pandemic.

Expect next cabs off the rank to be the antibacterial soap manufacturers with claims of bacteria free hands and houses. Consider this though the next wave of fear could come from antibacterial resistant bacteria created by the overuse of antibacterial agents.

Nothing new here, even Charles Darwin quoted..

"It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change."

Consider that with each new threat whether it be virus or bacteria will have adapted to the current environment in such a manner so as to bypass existing countermeasures.

This is only evolution in action.

Either way cashing in on the fear of viral or bacterial attack today will only delay the inevitable and probably cause the impact to be greater.

Ref Experts refute anti-bacterial soap claims

Tamiflu Marketing Kills Relenza Bird Flu Vaccine

2005-10-17T01:13:00.000-07:00

Despite Tamiflu being the drug most likely to be ineffective in the eradication of bird flu due to viral resistance to the drug, a similar acting Relenza or zanamavir has been largely overlooked so far. This viral resistance is apparently caused by anti-viral abuse or overuse.

Fewer Side Effects
However, according to nature.com Relenza is at least as effective as Tamiflu and has fewer side effects, including nausea and headaches, according to an article published 13 August (Lancet 366, 533?534; 2005). The report, based on data compiled from the companies' clinical trials and from subsequent studies, also says there is no evidence of resistance to Relenza, compared with resistance levels of up to 18% in those taking Tamiflu (Lancet 364, 759?765; 2004).
www.nature.com/news/2005/050829/pf/nm0905-909_pf.html.

More on Tamiflu resistance
Dr William Chui, an associate professor at Queen Mary Hospital in Hong Kong, has said that health authorities could no longer rely on Tamiflu. "There are now resistant H5N1 strains appearing and we can't totally rely on one drug," reports Reuters. Mr Chui also claimed that general viral resistance to Tamiflu is growing in Japan, where doctors routinely prescribe this drug to fight common human influenza.

A small Japanese independent study published last August already suggested that influenza viruses were becoming resistant to Tamiflu, and that the resistance may be more common than thought. In this study, 18 percent of the child patients had Tamiflu-resistant influenza, said lead researcher Yoshihiro Kawaoka, a professor of virology, microbiology, and immunology at the University of Tokyo.
www.mmrs.fema.gov/news/influenza/2005/oct/nflu2005-10-12d.aspx

Military To Enforce Quarantines

2005-10-13T15:00:00.000-07:00

The US government considering plans to use the military for enforcement of quarantines in the event of an avian influenza or bird flu outbreak occurring. Presumably this includes armed personell, tanks and planes. Curfews and restriction on movement should also be expected. Pictures of science fiction movies with men in white suits and gas masks herding people into containment centres comes to mind.

So what are your family plans if forced to be housebound by a bird flu outbreak?

Reviewing the time between recent disaster events and return of basic food and shelter facilities indicates you could be left to fend for yourself for 2 or 3 weeks, whilst response activities reach
the affected area.

Consider that once a local outbreak is detected the reactions of others, less prepared will create
chaos as they empty store shelves gathering basic provisions.

This time spent without reliance on food and clean water is something you can plan for today.

Start a plan now - for starters....

Sufficient containers to stock with water for 3 weeks.
Enough imperishable food to live off - and a can opener.
What about stocking up on Paracetamol.
Maintaining sufficient supplies of medication.
Radio with batteries.
Torch.

Of course the federal military are currently prohibited from law-enforcement by the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, enacted during the post-Civil War.

Expect this to change if the chicken flu hits the fan....

Ref http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/411319/618722

Marketing flu fear, Media gone mad

2005-10-10T14:58:00.000-07:00

The media are responsible for creating the hysteria about bird flu driving fear into the very hearts of family life.

First we had Killer Bees from Africa, then SARS, Bird Flu, now we have Dog Flu crossing the species barrier from Horse Flu in the USA.

Give us a break, this is all about money and marketing. Cause there is no money in good news.

Under the guise of public interest the media have taken the H5N1 virus or avian Influenza virus and marketed this under the name of bird flu. Nothing strikes fear more rapidly than the image of the things you see every day having the potential to kill.

Similar to the fear of terrorism affecting travellers, the enhanced marketing of news stories affects all.

Reviewing the current virus scares.
H5N1 avian influenza, Bird Flu.
H3N8 equine influenza canine influenza, Dog Flu or Horse Flu.

Whilst not as news worthy, guidance to individuals on what to do, instead of telling us how we are all doomed would more of a public service.

Surely the media so hell bent on ratings and profit can pause for a day or two to help citizens to prepare.

Scientists lack respect for avian flu virus?

2005-10-09T00:26:00.000-07:00

While the Spanish flu virus extracted from Alaskan permafrost victims is reborn into a living deadly virus strain by scientists at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in August, the viruses security rating is only high enough to be dealt with at Biological Safety Level 3 (BLS-3).

Even though team Tumpey found that the reconstructed virus killed otherwise healthy mice in 3 to 5 days and when the scientists infected samples of human-lung cells with the virus, it replicated readily this does not constitute a serious enough threat to gain the respect of BLS-4.

Why is it that the news wires are choked with stories of the danger of bird flu yet scientists do not consider the threat gravely serious when tinkering with the virus?

The Biological safety levels...

BSL-1 Appropriate for well-characterized agents not known to consistently cause disease in healthy adults, and of minimal potential hazard to laboratory personnel and the environment. Given higher threat levels, BSL-1 is generally not being used, and BSL-2 has become the baseline level in new public health labs.

BSL-2 In both BSL-1 and BSL-2, work can take place in an open laboratory environment, but BSL-2 work needs to be supervised by a qualified scientist. Access to the lab space must be controlled, and caution is required when handling sharp items and infectious aerosols and splashes. BSL-2 work might involve bacteria, influenza viruses, and even HIV.

BSL-3 BSL-3 work must be conducted in specially designed closed laboratory environments using biological safety cabinets. Materials involved can cause potentially lethal diseases (such as anthrax, tuberculosis, and West Nile virus) if inhaled.

BSL-4 BSL-4 agents can cause life-threatening, untreatable disease if inhaled. In addition to observing BSL-3 precautions, workers must wear one-piece pressure suits ventilated by life-support systems. Materials handled in this environment include the Ebola virus.

References:
http://www.financialexpress-bd.com/index3.asp?cnd=10/6/2005&section_id=26&newsid=2931&spcl=no
http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20051008/fob2.asp

Protection from avian bird flu - lessons from computer viruses

2005-10-05T00:06:00.000-07:00

How does a country protect itself from the avian bird flu?

One method of rapid widespread bird flu infection once human infection begins will be from infected travelers carrying the virus into new destinations.

An important initial step to gain time for vaccine production will be to block the spread of infection at points of entry for travelers.

Using the computer security firewall approach of starting with a 'deny all' policy to all traffic with specific rules to allow access for known safe traffic

At airports this will be a reversal of the 'allow all' and block the identified bad people approach in place today which uses flawed thinking that all known threats are the only threats. The problem with this approach is that it creates a window of opportunity for new threats to become realized, before they become known and countermeasures can be put in place.

An example is a new vulnerability affecting web servers for which no current 'badness' signature is available. Under the 'allow all' rule this new threat will bypass security as it is not in the know list of bad traffic to be blocked.

All agreed acceptable people (traffic) are permitted entry i.e. those from known locations with no cases of human bird flu in and the traveler has resided there for more than the incubation period, all others are blocked for further investigation or testing.

Crazy talk about bird flu - Tamiflu and Relenza.

2005-10-02T23:49:00.000-07:00

This note from 'The Age" news source in Austrailia highlights the cover-my-a$s type actions of those who should know better.

The Government decided to stockpile Tamiflu, rather than another available anti-viral drug, Relenza, based on medical advice. But some experts have questioned the advice. Professor Graeme Laver, whose research on the flu virus was instrumental in the discovery of anti-flu drugs, said the Government should have stockpiled half Tamiflu, half Relenza. "It would have been wise to buy half of each," he said. "Putting all your eggs in one basket is a bit silly." More -->

Actually filling the basket with eggs makes sense! The current vaccines don't work so even stockpiling Mars Bars will probably save more people.

Detection and response is where the money must be spent what use is buying a few extra days with temporary vaccine relief be when food, water and power have run out.

Compare the expected bird flu pandemic with that of protection of computer systems

2005-10-01T01:24:00.000-07:00

Compare the expected bird flu pandemic with that of protection of computer systems and you will see that relying on any magic pill for protection is a naive response.

Hell if computer systems used this approach for protection today we wouldnâ€™t have enough technology left to run a remote control.

Viruses of both types change continually - in fact the only likelihood of widespread computer virus is through a new or modified virus. Breeding a successful computer pandemic relies on bypassing the existing technology i.e. the virus changes to circumvent the current protection.

The answer is to plan for a mutated or new virus that existing protection will not cure.

Detection and isolation response not existing vaccines are now the critical factors to buy time to build defenses for an outbreak.

After evidencing the bureaucracies between governments and agencies even in the case of the recent isolated hurricane, I doubt that there is even a worldwide phone list to advise of an influenza outbreak.

It will be too late to wait for the first plane load of virus ridden tourists to arrive.

News at 7 - oops we goofed again.

Tamiflu - Snake Oil or the Real Deal

2005-09-30T02:57:00.000-07:00

Millions of dollars are being flushed on Tamiflu as governments battle to show constituents their concern for a bird flu pandemic.

Perhaps as an overkill response to the recent hurricane fiasco yet somehow the marketers at Roche have succeeded in creating a viral (sic) spread of Lemming-like thinking and separating hard earned cash in the hope of staving off a human pandemic.

Let's clear our heads and have a look at this.

Have Roche ever claimed to have a cure for the mutation expected from H5N1 - Nope, check the web site for yourself. Get a grip, how could this possibly work when the mutated virus in a virulent form for humans has not developed yet.

What about the reality of taking Tamiflu every few days (cause that's all it is effective for) for months (duration of the pandemic) to get protection - all at $30 per dose.

This is a money making scam exploiting the fears of the world population manifesting itself as arguably the most successful medical marketing campaign ever.

What do you think - snake oil or the real deal?

Rezeens
http://birdflu.atspace.com

Indonesia now

2005-09-29T03:29:00.000-07:00

Reports are comming in from Indonesia that at least 6 people have died from suspected bird flu. The bird flu hospital Sulianti Saroso is due to get assistance from Japanese experts. Is this is close enough to Australia for people to take notice?

Bird flu information>