England a soft target for bird flu

Almost a month after the avian flu infected parrot died in British quarantine the Environment secretary has finally announced a tightening of the rules for quarantine.

The blame game has finished now with no answers to the question how did these parrots get infected. Taiwan was high on the British shoot first ask questions later approach to finding the source of infection. Of course this later proved to be incorrect.

So after being unable to find the source of infection, and after a month of twiddling thumbs waiting for the answers, some action is being taken.

The problem is that a months delay it too long in a pandemic outbreak to take action.

References:
Times online
ePolitix

Dead Parrot Outsmarts Abysmal British Quarantine

An infected parrot being fed and watered at a British quarantine facility has been found to have H5N1 avian bird flu and been killed.

Whilst this gives the appearance that the quarantine system works, the reality is that the system failed. You see the British traced back the origin of the parrot to Suriname a South American location, surprisingly a location without avian bird flu.

So shaky is the actual inter-quarantine facilities that blame was placed on poor Taiwan since they have bird flu and Taiwanese birds were in quarantine at the time. Ignoring the how part of spreading infection between quarantined species, that Taiwan farm has been tested and found clear of avian bird flu.

So where did the parrots avian bird influenza originate? Guess what, no one knows.

You can only imagine the behind the scenes lax British quarantine security that allows animals from different shipments to intermingle, creating a cross contamination mixing pot that has proven to defeat the intention of quarantine.

Consider also the inept British investigation team that without any facts immediately blamed an innocent country for their infections, only to be caught short. You see from their own records the dead infected birds arrived on September 16th, and the Taiwan birds on the 27th September, so this scenario was never going to work.

Don't these people watch CSI, my 10 year old daughter could have figured that one out!

Given the competency demonstrated the quarantine facilities should be closed immediately and all imports of animals ceased to protect the British public.

References:
english.www.gov.tw/TaiwanHeadlines/index.jsp?categid=10&recordid=87575
www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2005/10/26/afx2299150.html
www.thetidenews.com/article.aspx?qrDate=10/28/2005&qrTitle=H5N1%20bird%20flu%20strain%20found%20in%20dead%20parrot
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ns.html

China to mutate killer bird flu virus first

All eyes are on China as the breading ground for the mutation of the bird flu virus.

Virus hunter Dr. Guan Yi and his team the discoverers of masked palm civet, raccoon dog and hog badger as SARS carriers are to set-up operations in China.

They have already recorded about 20 mutations of H5N1 and believe that the overuse of vaccines in China and Vietnam make these locations prime candidates for a pandemic mutation.

Expert Dr. Guan advises a solution to the pandemic threat by killing the entire domestic bird population.

According to Dr. Guan, many mammalian influenza viruses have already mastered the tricky secret of passing easily from person to person. The ideal strategy for the A(H5N1) virus would be to infect a person already carrying a human influenza virus and then swap genetic material with it. Because pigs can readily carry human and avian influenza viruses, they could also be the mixing vessels for a new virus.

References:

CTV News

ThinkQuest

Corporates Cash-in on Costly Bird Flu

We have seen the companies selling products purported to cure bird flu despite a virulent form of the virus not yet mutated to affect humans. Roche shares will certainly be doing well for Tamiflu sales even without any claims from the manufacturer the product can cure the expected bird flu pandemic.

Expect next cabs off the rank to be the antibacterial soap manufacturers with claims of bacteria free hands and houses. Consider this though the next wave of fear could come from antibacterial resistant bacteria created by the overuse of antibacterial agents.

Nothing new here, even Charles Darwin quoted..

"It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change."

Consider that with each new threat whether it be virus or bacteria will have adapted to the current environment in such a manner so as to bypass existing countermeasures.

This is only evolution in action.

Either way cashing in on the fear of viral or bacterial attack today will only delay the inevitable and probably cause the impact to be greater.

Ref Experts refute anti-bacterial soap claims

Tamiflu Marketing Kills Relenza Bird Flu Vaccine

Despite Tamiflu being the drug most likely to be ineffective in the eradication of bird flu due to viral resistance to the drug, a similar acting Relenza or zanamavir has been largely overlooked so far. This viral resistance is apparently caused by anti-viral abuse or overuse.

Fewer Side Effects
However, according to nature.com Relenza is at least as effective as Tamiflu and has fewer side effects, including nausea and headaches, according to an article published 13 August (Lancet 366, 533?534; 2005). The report, based on data compiled from the companies' clinical trials and from subsequent studies, also says there is no evidence of resistance to Relenza, compared with resistance levels of up to 18% in those taking Tamiflu (Lancet 364, 759?765; 2004).
www.nature.com/news/2005/050829/pf/nm0905-909_pf.html.

More on Tamiflu resistance
Dr William Chui, an associate professor at Queen Mary Hospital in Hong Kong, has said that health authorities could no longer rely on Tamiflu. "There are now resistant H5N1 strains appearing and we can't totally rely on one drug," reports Reuters. Mr Chui also claimed that general viral resistance to Tamiflu is growing in Japan, where doctors routinely prescribe this drug to fight common human influenza.


A small Japanese independent study published last August already suggested that influenza viruses were becoming resistant to Tamiflu, and that the resistance may be more common than thought. In this study, 18 percent of the child patients had Tamiflu-resistant influenza, said lead researcher Yoshihiro Kawaoka, a professor of virology, microbiology, and immunology at the University of Tokyo.
www.mmrs.fema.gov/news/influenza/2005/oct/nflu2005-10-12d.aspx

Military To Enforce Quarantines

The US government considering plans to use the military for enforcement of quarantines in the event of an avian influenza or bird flu outbreak occurring. Presumably this includes armed personell, tanks and planes. Curfews and restriction on movement should also be expected. Pictures of science fiction movies with men in white suits and gas masks herding people into containment centres comes to mind.

So what are your family plans if forced to be housebound by a bird flu outbreak?

Reviewing the time between recent disaster events and return of basic food and shelter facilities indicates you could be left to fend for yourself for 2 or 3 weeks, whilst response activities reach
the affected area.

Consider that once a local outbreak is detected the reactions of others, less prepared will create
chaos as they empty store shelves gathering basic provisions.

This time spent without reliance on food and clean water is something you can plan for today.

Start a plan now - for starters....

Sufficient containers to stock with water for 3 weeks.
Enough imperishable food to live off - and a can opener.
What about stocking up on Paracetamol.
Maintaining sufficient supplies of medication.
Radio with batteries.
Torch.

Of course the federal military are currently prohibited from law-enforcement by the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, enacted during the post-Civil War.

Expect this to change if the chicken flu hits the fan....

Ref http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/411319/618722

Marketing flu fear, Media gone mad

The media are responsible for creating the hysteria about bird flu driving fear into the very hearts of family life.

First we had Killer Bees from Africa, then SARS, Bird Flu, now we have Dog Flu crossing the species barrier from Horse Flu in the USA.

Give us a break, this is all about money and marketing. Cause there is no money in good news.

Under the guise of public interest the media have taken the H5N1 virus or avian Influenza virus and marketed this under the name of bird flu. Nothing strikes fear more rapidly than the image of the things you see every day having the potential to kill.

Similar to the fear of terrorism affecting travellers, the enhanced marketing of news stories affects all.

Reviewing the current virus scares.
H5N1 avian influenza, Bird Flu.
H3N8 equine influenza canine influenza, Dog Flu or Horse Flu.

Whilst not as news worthy, guidance to individuals on what to do, instead of telling us how we are all doomed would more of a public service.

Surely the media so hell bent on ratings and profit can pause for a day or two to help citizens to prepare.

Scientists lack respect for avian flu virus?

While the Spanish flu virus extracted from Alaskan permafrost victims is reborn into a living deadly virus strain by scientists at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in August, the viruses security rating is only high enough to be dealt with at Biological Safety Level 3 (BLS-3).

Even though team Tumpey found that the reconstructed virus killed otherwise healthy mice in 3 to 5 days and when the scientists infected samples of human-lung cells with the virus, it replicated readily this does not constitute a serious enough threat to gain the respect of BLS-4.

Why is it that the news wires are choked with stories of the danger of bird flu yet scientists do not consider the threat gravely serious when tinkering with the virus?

The Biological safety levels...

BSL-1 Appropriate for well-characterized agents not known to consistently cause disease in healthy adults, and of minimal potential hazard to laboratory personnel and the environment. Given higher threat levels, BSL-1 is generally not being used, and BSL-2 has become the baseline level in new public health labs.

BSL-2 In both BSL-1 and BSL-2, work can take place in an open laboratory environment, but BSL-2 work needs to be supervised by a qualified scientist. Access to the lab space must be controlled, and caution is required when handling sharp items and infectious aerosols and splashes. BSL-2 work might involve bacteria, influenza viruses, and even HIV.

BSL-3 BSL-3 work must be conducted in specially designed closed laboratory environments using biological safety cabinets. Materials involved can cause potentially lethal diseases (such as anthrax, tuberculosis, and West Nile virus) if inhaled.

BSL-4 BSL-4 agents can cause life-threatening, untreatable disease if inhaled. In addition to observing BSL-3 precautions, workers must wear one-piece pressure suits ventilated by life-support systems. Materials handled in this environment include the Ebola virus.

References:
http://www.financialexpress-bd.com/index3.asp?cnd=10/6/2005&section_id=26&newsid=2931&spcl=no
http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20051008/fob2.asp

Protection from avian bird flu - lessons from computer viruses

How does a country protect itself from the avian bird flu?

One method of rapid widespread bird flu infection once human infection begins will be from infected travelers carrying the virus into new destinations.

An important initial step to gain time for vaccine production will be to block the spread of infection at points of entry for travelers.

Using the computer security firewall approach of starting with a 'deny all' policy to all traffic with specific rules to allow access for known safe traffic

At airports this will be a reversal of the 'allow all' and block the identified bad people approach in place today which uses flawed thinking that all known threats are the only threats. The problem with this approach is that it creates a window of opportunity for new threats to become realized, before they become known and countermeasures can be put in place.

An example is a new vulnerability affecting web servers for which no current 'badness' signature is available. Under the 'allow all' rule this new threat will bypass security as it is not in the know list of bad traffic to be blocked.

All agreed acceptable people (traffic) are permitted entry i.e. those from known locations with no cases of human bird flu in and the traveler has resided there for more than the incubation period, all others are blocked for further investigation or testing.

Crazy talk about bird flu - Tamiflu and Relenza.

This note from 'The Age" news source in Austrailia highlights the cover-my-a$s type actions of those who should know better.

The Government decided to stockpile Tamiflu, rather than another available anti-viral drug, Relenza, based on medical advice. But some experts have questioned the advice. Professor Graeme Laver, whose research on the flu virus was instrumental in the discovery of anti-flu drugs, said the Government should have stockpiled half Tamiflu, half Relenza. "It would have been wise to buy half of each," he said. "Putting all your eggs in one basket is a bit silly." More -->

Actually filling the basket with eggs makes sense! The current vaccines don't work so even stockpiling Mars Bars will probably save more people.

Detection and response is where the money must be spent what use is buying a few extra days with temporary vaccine relief be when food, water and power have run out.

Compare the expected bird flu pandemic with that of protection of computer systems

Compare the expected bird flu pandemic with that of protection of computer systems and you will see that relying on any magic pill for protection is a naive response.

Hell if computer systems used this approach for protection today we wouldn’t have enough technology left to run a remote control.

Viruses of both types change continually - in fact the only likelihood of widespread computer virus is through a new or modified virus. Breeding a successful computer pandemic relies on bypassing the existing technology i.e. the virus changes to circumvent the current protection.

The answer is to plan for a mutated or new virus that existing protection will not cure.

Detection and isolation response not existing vaccines are now the critical factors to buy time to build defenses for an outbreak.

After evidencing the bureaucracies between governments and agencies even in the case of the recent isolated hurricane, I doubt that there is even a worldwide phone list to advise of an influenza outbreak.

It will be too late to wait for the first plane load of virus ridden tourists to arrive.

News at 7 - oops we goofed again.