Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America

It was only a matter of time before the bird flu pandemic hit the silver screens.

Biohazard suits, African villagers dead you can imagine the plot with a touch of reality following wide spread publicity about the H5N1 virus.

In Pennsylvania the Health Secretary has even timed the launch of a new web site on the Avian pandemic with the expected release of the film.

Expect more confusion now as people consider whether the threat from birdflu is real or just hype.

Reuters, on the birdflu movie

Y2k Bug with Feathers - Bird Flu

Like the ripples from a stone dropped in a pool on a still day, the resounding echoes of Bird Flu spread ever outward.

Growing daily like a rolling snowball into a billion dollar industry. Driving fear into the hearts of the layperson whilst the medical industry like a stealthy pickpocket, empties the punters pockets of their hard earned cash as attention is distracted.

Since 1918 we have know the impact of an H5N1 outbreak, since 1918 we have been vulnerable, since 1918 though, nothing has changed. Still no mutation, still no pandemic, still plenty of other things to worry about.

Remember Mad Cows, SARS, Global Warming, Fossil Fuels, Year 2000 bug? All have one thing in common as a starting point.

Money. Starting with a random comment published one day, one of thousands each month, that the public shows interest in. All made simple to analyze and detect through Internet search monitoring.

In first ripple of impact the issue escalates based on public interest to generate interviews and opinions of scientists. Scientists need funding to continue to do what they do. Funding follows fear, finally a return for research satisfying public thirst for information. Opinions are sought, the most newsworthy (translate valuable) being reported.

In the second ripple of impact the manufacturing chemists, vaccine makers the rainmakers, look for their angle. The carrot of hope for funding in advance of delivering a usable product. The Nirvana for companies that struggle with low return rates from high investment. Again more media commentary and public hope based on further cures for a non-existent pandemic. The crazier the news story the more who read it, the greater the fear, reinforcing the original concept.

In the third ripple everyone joins in the melee. Consultants to advise on actions to take to protect the corporate world. Project managers to implement risk mitigation strategies. Stock exchanges to encourage trading into bird flu safe stocks. Pharmacies to provide stocks of anything related to flu. Herbal remedies, religious instructions, military mobilization, undertakers, hospitals. Governments throw money to be sure of no blame.

Even that old faithful Nostradamus, that French physician & astrologer, a rhymed predictor of ambiguous phrases, gets wheeled out of his pyramid sarcophagus and the prophecies are expounded again to his intellectually vacuumous minions.

There is no bird flu pandemic. Just like there was no Year 2000 shutdown of the world, nor millions with mad cow disease, nor SARS spreading around the world, nor running out of petrol for cars, nor sea levels rising and drowning us all.

Reference

Avian Bird Flu Facts

Do not Fear the Bird Flu

The avian bird flu is not your biggest concern in a pandemic outbreak, instead it is the people. Rational behavior will quickly disappear along with law and order should a flu pandemic spread worldwide.

So you have managed to stockpile a few boxes of Tamiflu and probably told a few of your friends. Just how do you think you will repel their attempts to gain access to your medicine where it is a life-or-death situation?

What about food? The initial panic buying at supermarkets will quickly clear warehouses of all the necessities, imperishable food, batteries, water, and drugs. The police will be powerless to help, outnumbered 100's to one, and with their own families to consider. Even the hospitals, overwhelmed with flu infected sick and dying people will have people trying to jump the queue.

Bought a weapon to protect yourself? Just remember, so has everyone else. Expect gangs of weapon wielding irrational people, roaming the streets looking for anything that offers hope. Think you will be safe in your full biohazard suit, sure, until someone without one rips a hole in it.

Watch for Vietnam or china to show us how bad this can get, like some morbid science fiction movie.

At the end of the day you either survive or not, but no one wins.

British Bio Hazard Suits for all

Avian Bird Flu Information

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Bird flu Bumbling in New Zealand

An opportunity to demonstrate avian bird flu preparedness in New Zealand yesterday failed to impress. Arriving from Australia, a Philippines visitor outwardly showing symptoms of viral infection was tagged by staff as possible risk.

So far so good, then it all went wrong. Within a short space of time the passenger was ?cleared? for release claiming he only had ?regular flu?.

Now I?m not sure what tests the New Zealand authorities have but this is pretty impressive to be able to prove non-existence of avian bird flu with just an ambulance driver performing the tests. Perhaps the rest of the world would benefit from access to this superb test.

More likely guess work was used to assume that the bird flu virus was not raging through the veins of this patient. Remember that the actual symptoms of avian bird flu will not established until a pandemic breaks due to mutation of the virus. In other words the symptoms today are unknown.

What an irresponsible risk to New Zealand though with a plane full of passengers exposed to breath of this person being immediately released into the public areas and to other flights.

If this had been the real deal, the damage could not be undone.

References:
nzherald.co.nz
Bird flu symptoms
Avian bird flu

Sauerkraut, Kimchi & Avian Bird Flu

At a time when access to bird flu antiviral medicines is being denied by legislation and short supply, a new entrant emerges claiming potential to reduce the impact of avian flu. The difference is that this possible cure is readily available and at a low cost for all.

Leuconostoc Kimchii or Kimchi lactic acid bacteria have been tested on bird flu infected chickens claiming recovery from the virus according to one source.

The Kimchi, a Korean fermented cabbage meal similar to the pickled cabbage Sauerkraut dish is claimed to have aided recovery of 11 out of 13 chickens in tests during November 2005.

Though the scientific merits of curing avian bird flu with cabbage have certainly not been proven, nor are we likely to see millions spent on development given the potential lack of return for drug companies - it is probably a simple measure to gain essential vitamins to protect against viral infection.

References
The Seoul Times Comment
Clevelandnews

More from The Seoul Times

Bird Flu Symptoms

Sinovac Scores Big with Bird Flu Vaccine

Dec 27: Sinovac announces clinical trials of a potential vaccine for avian bird flu. Allowed by the Chinese to fast-track human testing this is exciting news for the company shareholders.

It is too easy to be fooled into thinking a cure is here, remember that the announcements come as company PR press releases rather than from the scientific community.

This company in country being hit economically by bad publicity over virus spread is a shining light for the government spreading good news on China for a change.

Sinovac, masters of working the press and government, have recently scored RMB 7 million worth of funding from China's Ministry of Science and Technology. This is in addition to over US$1 million in government funding received in 2004.

Notable is the timing
Dec 12 Reaped RMB 7 million of funding
Dec 21 Announcement of vaccine ready for trials
Dec 21 Government approval to fast track human testing to only two phases

Panflu possibly a combination of Anflu - translated from Chinese into English as "If you live in safe, you are very lucky" does not instill faith into the capability of the vaccine. However cashing in on a shorter sharper established Tamiflu marketing brand will be of benefit.

Is this really the pandemic cure we all hope for, or merely a PR exercise for China?

References:

Sinovac Company Overview
PRNnewswire
China CSR Sinovac_biotech
Bird flu information

Bird flu virus in Leaky Aerosol Chamber?

Complacency grows with widespread use of scientific samples of the H5N1 bird flu virus.

New Zealand has announced intentions to import and tinker with the virus at a research laboratory in Wallaceville, in the interests of science of course, according to the director of Biosecurity New Zealand.

What is alarming about this announcement is that the facility at Wallaceville is only rated to Biological Safety Level BSL 3.

Just last year the world experienced laboratory infection spread from so called safety labs when a leaky aerosol chamber manufactured by the University of Wisconsin at Madison was responsible for three laboratory-acquired tuberculosis infections in a Seattle BSL-3 lab last year.

The same Madison chamber in use in the New Zealand BSL 3+ facility, full of seals and "O rings" made in the USA.

Do scientists tinkering with viruses and vaccines themselves; pose the real risk of mutating avian influenza?


Aerosal leaks in BSL containment
Ministry of Health New Zealand
Biological safety levels BSL 1 BSL2 BSL 3 BSL 4
Avian flu information

Chinese Brewing Benzene and Bird Flu

With 100 tonnes of deadly cancer causing Benzene spilling into water supplies for millions of Chinese, consideration should be given to the impact on H5N1 bird flu mutation.

Mutant cancer causing cells created by Benzene, when mixed with the current H5N1 avian bird flu strain, not yet deadly for humans, but themselves awaiting mutation to create a human pandemic, make for a deadly movie plot type scenario.

Surely the Chinese would not have caused this scenario to eradicate a hidden bird flu epidemic by poisoning millions of people. Yet the Chinese stories have some flaws, so far we have;
- A chemical plant explosion
- A truck crash filled with chemicals (ten truckloads)
- A dam wall break that was holding back chemicals

The Chinese government is however adamant there will be no cover-up and that they will punish severely any attempt to do this. Mysteriously though a senior official who told reporters that the explosion didn't cause any pollution has reportedly been found dead.

All is not what it seems here.

Reference:
Isn.ethz.ch/news
Leadingthecharge.com/stories
Chinapost.com
Bird flu information

California Thinking Clear on Bird Flu

California's Department of Health Services is taking action to encourage physicians not to dispense Tamiflu to patients.

The effects of this will be two fold, first allowing the state to maintain its stockpile of Tamiflu, second to prevent creating a possible breeding ground for avian influenza H5N1 through resistance to the drug in humans from overuse.

It's a gamble either way for the public, trust the officials or every man for himself.

Given the west coast being a prime target for the first port of call for bird flu due to it providing a gateway for travel to Asian countries it is however good to see officials taking charge.

Also in news from North California, the supposed bird flu found in turkeys whilst technically bird flu, is not the H5N1 strain that everyone is concerned about. Still makes a good news scare though.

References:
Bird flu information
Daily bulletin
MSN