Sinovac Scores Big with Bird Flu Vaccine

Dec 27: Sinovac announces clinical trials of a potential vaccine for avian bird flu. Allowed by the Chinese to fast-track human testing this is exciting news for the company shareholders.

It is too easy to be fooled into thinking a cure is here, remember that the announcements come as company PR press releases rather than from the scientific community.

This company in country being hit economically by bad publicity over virus spread is a shining light for the government spreading good news on China for a change.

Sinovac, masters of working the press and government, have recently scored RMB 7 million worth of funding from China's Ministry of Science and Technology. This is in addition to over US$1 million in government funding received in 2004.

Notable is the timing
Dec 12 Reaped RMB 7 million of funding
Dec 21 Announcement of vaccine ready for trials
Dec 21 Government approval to fast track human testing to only two phases

Panflu possibly a combination of Anflu - translated from Chinese into English as "If you live in safe, you are very lucky" does not instill faith into the capability of the vaccine. However cashing in on a shorter sharper established Tamiflu marketing brand will be of benefit.

Is this really the pandemic cure we all hope for, or merely a PR exercise for China?

References:

Sinovac Company Overview
PRNnewswire
China CSR Sinovac_biotech
Bird flu information

Bird flu virus in Leaky Aerosol Chamber?

Complacency grows with widespread use of scientific samples of the H5N1 bird flu virus.

New Zealand has announced intentions to import and tinker with the virus at a research laboratory in Wallaceville, in the interests of science of course, according to the director of Biosecurity New Zealand.

What is alarming about this announcement is that the facility at Wallaceville is only rated to Biological Safety Level BSL 3.

Just last year the world experienced laboratory infection spread from so called safety labs when a leaky aerosol chamber manufactured by the University of Wisconsin at Madison was responsible for three laboratory-acquired tuberculosis infections in a Seattle BSL-3 lab last year.

The same Madison chamber in use in the New Zealand BSL 3+ facility, full of seals and "O rings" made in the USA.

Do scientists tinkering with viruses and vaccines themselves; pose the real risk of mutating avian influenza?


Aerosal leaks in BSL containment
Ministry of Health New Zealand
Biological safety levels BSL 1 BSL2 BSL 3 BSL 4
Avian flu information

Chinese Brewing Benzene and Bird Flu

With 100 tonnes of deadly cancer causing Benzene spilling into water supplies for millions of Chinese, consideration should be given to the impact on H5N1 bird flu mutation.

Mutant cancer causing cells created by Benzene, when mixed with the current H5N1 avian bird flu strain, not yet deadly for humans, but themselves awaiting mutation to create a human pandemic, make for a deadly movie plot type scenario.

Surely the Chinese would not have caused this scenario to eradicate a hidden bird flu epidemic by poisoning millions of people. Yet the Chinese stories have some flaws, so far we have;
- A chemical plant explosion
- A truck crash filled with chemicals (ten truckloads)
- A dam wall break that was holding back chemicals

The Chinese government is however adamant there will be no cover-up and that they will punish severely any attempt to do this. Mysteriously though a senior official who told reporters that the explosion didn't cause any pollution has reportedly been found dead.

All is not what it seems here.

Reference:
Isn.ethz.ch/news
Leadingthecharge.com/stories
Chinapost.com
Bird flu information

California Thinking Clear on Bird Flu

California's Department of Health Services is taking action to encourage physicians not to dispense Tamiflu to patients.

The effects of this will be two fold, first allowing the state to maintain its stockpile of Tamiflu, second to prevent creating a possible breeding ground for avian influenza H5N1 through resistance to the drug in humans from overuse.

It's a gamble either way for the public, trust the officials or every man for himself.

Given the west coast being a prime target for the first port of call for bird flu due to it providing a gateway for travel to Asian countries it is however good to see officials taking charge.

Also in news from North California, the supposed bird flu found in turkeys whilst technically bird flu, is not the H5N1 strain that everyone is concerned about. Still makes a good news scare though.

References:
Bird flu information
Daily bulletin
MSN

Bird Flu Triggers Next Stock Market Crash

Airlines are likely to be the first hit from avian birdflu as borders and travel grind to a halt. The flow on effect into economies will be massive as restrictions are place on people, whether self-imposed or by regulation.

The worldwide share markets will commence dumping shares in the most affected markets, starting with travel. Large investors already have action plans waiting for the signal, likely to come from China with avian influenza mutation already reported.

But, it is not the large investors that will suffer given the resources they have to be prepared, the first to exit can bank their cash, instead it is the small investor that will suffer. To jump out now or wait is key decision.

Profiting from Pandemic
According to an Australian news source large investors are being prepared now to bail out of bird flu exposed shares.

Citygroup, a large worldwide investment firm has taken this to the extreme, in advising clients not only to reduce risk, also how to profit from a pandemic.

Risk mitigation strategies around the unknown timing of bird flu spread in humans, could trigger a stock market crash ahead of any outbreak, based on the actions of few large investors.

Is this the time to review alternative investments to shares, before the big boys bail?

Report on Citygroup's investor advice
Bird Flu Information

New Zealand Bans Tamiflu Importing & Sales

South Pacific country New Zealand has laws that actually make illegal the importation of Tamiflu a key drug for supressing the avian bird flu spread.

New Zealand's Medsafe principal technical adviser says that "Tamiflu was a prescription medicine and it was illegal for individuals to import prescription medicines."

At the same time the New Zealander public are being refused the ability to purchase the anti-viral drug Tamiflu through pharmacy or chemist, the legal option, until May next year.

How does this support the global fight to prevent avian bird flu h5n1 virus becoming a worldwide pandemic?

More on this ....
Manawatustandard
tvnz.co.nz

AIDS Bird Flu Mutation - Nightmare Scenario or Movie Plot?

Flu experts worry that the Bird flu could readily mutate into a pandemic form when it infects people with AIDS.

Expert Speaks Out
A BBC report discloses that Dr. Robert Webster a U.S. flu expert said at a conference in New York City that it is possible people with AIDS can harbor the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, which would give it the opportunity to become better adapted - and more dangerous - to humans.

Possibly the crisis scenario could be realized when the H5N1 virus reaches East Africa, where many people have HIV/AIDS.

When the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus infects people with HIV/AIDS, those who have weakened immune systems ? the virus could become better adapted and dangerous to humans

St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis said because those with the HIV virus have depressed immune systems, the avian H5N1 virus would make them much more susceptible, and prime breeding grounds for a deadly adaptation of bird flu.

The Scenario
Earlier this month, Pulitzer Prize-winning health journalist Laurie Garrett explained a scary theory about how HIV and the bird flu virus would interact.

It is claimed that the H5N1 virus kills by over-stimulating cytokines in the immune system, many of which are suppressed by HIV infection. Following this line of reasoning this means that people with HIV-related immune dysfunction will survive the bird flu infection. In turn leading to a breeding ground for H5N1 in surviving patients, allowing the flu virus to mutate and adapt.

In this scenario, the HIV+ person becomes the mixing pot, growing and spreading new forms of the virus.

Bird flu Spread Map

Reference: news.webindia123.com

China Export - Gains from Bird Flu

A star-shaped fruit called Star Anise of a small oriental tree holds the key to unlocking Tamiflu production. According to a Roche presentation 13 grams of Star Anise can produce enough shikimic acid, a raw material for 10 capsules of oseltamivir (Tamiflu).

So as world demand for the anti-viral Tamiflu rises so does the demand for Shikimic acid. It is argued that treatment of the world population will be constrained by the availability of Star Anise.

Already the price of shikimic acid from China has soared to more than $400 a kilogram, from just $40.

Star Anise has been used in oriental cooking for thousands of years as it?s pungent, liquorice flavour, and it was introduced into Europe in the 17th Century in baked goods and in the making of fruit jams.

More from Reuters

Teen Deaths - Tamiflu Cause or Cure?

Tamiflu medicine tied to teen deaths and strange behavior as two Japanese newspapers report abnormal reactions to the drug.

One, a 17-year-old high school boy took one Tamiflu capsule at his home in Gifu Prefecture in February 2004 after being diagnosed with influenza. It is reported that while his family members were away from home, he left the house wearing pajamas even though it was snowing at the time, jumped over a guardrail near his home, and was hit by an oncoming truck and died.

The other a 14-year-old junior high school boy also took a Tamiflu capsule at his home in Aichi Prefecture in February 2005 after he was diagnosed with the flu. About two hours later, he was found dead lying on the ground in front of the condominium where he lived. His fingerprints were found on a handrail on the ninth floor of the complex, leading police investigators to suspect that he plunged to his death.

Besides these fatal cases, a teenage girl attempted to jump from a window two days after taking Tamiflu, but her mother managed to stop her. (Source Mainichi). The teen youths had never shown any abnormal behavior before they took Tamiflu.

The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry of Japan have confirmed the cause of death of at least one of the boys was the result of side-effects from the drug.

Doctor, Rokuro Hama, who heads the Japan Institute of Pharmacovigilance for Evidence-Based Healthcare, will apparently report the details of their deaths in a session of the Japanese Society for Pediatric Infectious Diseases in Tsu, Mie Prefecture.

Alarmingly the Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency in Japan reports 64 cases of psychological disorders linked to the drug (Tamiflu) between fiscal 2000 and 2004. A similar quantity to the number of people who have died from Avian influenza recently.

In Japan the Tamiflu carries a warnings of possible impaired consciousness, abnormal behavior, hallucinations, and other psychological and neurological symptoms.

Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., the importer distributor of Tamiflu produced by drug giant Roche, is claimed to have reported the incident to the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry, saying that the possibility that the medicine caused this odd behavior cannot be ruled out.

References

Manichi Daily News
Japan Times

Birdflu Symptoms