Do not Fear the Bird Flu

The avian bird flu is not your biggest concern in a pandemic outbreak, instead it is the people. Rational behavior will quickly disappear along with law and order should a flu pandemic spread worldwide.

So you have managed to stockpile a few boxes of Tamiflu and probably told a few of your friends. Just how do you think you will repel their attempts to gain access to your medicine where it is a life-or-death situation?

What about food? The initial panic buying at supermarkets will quickly clear warehouses of all the necessities, imperishable food, batteries, water, and drugs. The police will be powerless to help, outnumbered 100's to one, and with their own families to consider. Even the hospitals, overwhelmed with flu infected sick and dying people will have people trying to jump the queue.

Bought a weapon to protect yourself? Just remember, so has everyone else. Expect gangs of weapon wielding irrational people, roaming the streets looking for anything that offers hope. Think you will be safe in your full biohazard suit, sure, until someone without one rips a hole in it.

Watch for Vietnam or china to show us how bad this can get, like some morbid science fiction movie.

At the end of the day you either survive or not, but no one wins.

British Bio Hazard Suits for all

Avian Bird Flu Information

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Bird flu Bumbling in New Zealand

An opportunity to demonstrate avian bird flu preparedness in New Zealand yesterday failed to impress. Arriving from Australia, a Philippines visitor outwardly showing symptoms of viral infection was tagged by staff as possible risk.

So far so good, then it all went wrong. Within a short space of time the passenger was ?cleared? for release claiming he only had ?regular flu?.

Now I?m not sure what tests the New Zealand authorities have but this is pretty impressive to be able to prove non-existence of avian bird flu with just an ambulance driver performing the tests. Perhaps the rest of the world would benefit from access to this superb test.

More likely guess work was used to assume that the bird flu virus was not raging through the veins of this patient. Remember that the actual symptoms of avian bird flu will not established until a pandemic breaks due to mutation of the virus. In other words the symptoms today are unknown.

What an irresponsible risk to New Zealand though with a plane full of passengers exposed to breath of this person being immediately released into the public areas and to other flights.

If this had been the real deal, the damage could not be undone.

References:
nzherald.co.nz
Bird flu symptoms
Avian bird flu

Sauerkraut, Kimchi & Avian Bird Flu

At a time when access to bird flu antiviral medicines is being denied by legislation and short supply, a new entrant emerges claiming potential to reduce the impact of avian flu. The difference is that this possible cure is readily available and at a low cost for all.

Leuconostoc Kimchii or Kimchi lactic acid bacteria have been tested on bird flu infected chickens claiming recovery from the virus according to one source.

The Kimchi, a Korean fermented cabbage meal similar to the pickled cabbage Sauerkraut dish is claimed to have aided recovery of 11 out of 13 chickens in tests during November 2005.

Though the scientific merits of curing avian bird flu with cabbage have certainly not been proven, nor are we likely to see millions spent on development given the potential lack of return for drug companies - it is probably a simple measure to gain essential vitamins to protect against viral infection.

References
The Seoul Times Comment
Clevelandnews

More from The Seoul Times

Bird Flu Symptoms

Sinovac Scores Big with Bird Flu Vaccine

Dec 27: Sinovac announces clinical trials of a potential vaccine for avian bird flu. Allowed by the Chinese to fast-track human testing this is exciting news for the company shareholders.

It is too easy to be fooled into thinking a cure is here, remember that the announcements come as company PR press releases rather than from the scientific community.

This company in country being hit economically by bad publicity over virus spread is a shining light for the government spreading good news on China for a change.

Sinovac, masters of working the press and government, have recently scored RMB 7 million worth of funding from China's Ministry of Science and Technology. This is in addition to over US$1 million in government funding received in 2004.

Notable is the timing
Dec 12 Reaped RMB 7 million of funding
Dec 21 Announcement of vaccine ready for trials
Dec 21 Government approval to fast track human testing to only two phases

Panflu possibly a combination of Anflu - translated from Chinese into English as "If you live in safe, you are very lucky" does not instill faith into the capability of the vaccine. However cashing in on a shorter sharper established Tamiflu marketing brand will be of benefit.

Is this really the pandemic cure we all hope for, or merely a PR exercise for China?

References:

Sinovac Company Overview
PRNnewswire
China CSR Sinovac_biotech
Bird flu information

Bird flu virus in Leaky Aerosol Chamber?

Complacency grows with widespread use of scientific samples of the H5N1 bird flu virus.

New Zealand has announced intentions to import and tinker with the virus at a research laboratory in Wallaceville, in the interests of science of course, according to the director of Biosecurity New Zealand.

What is alarming about this announcement is that the facility at Wallaceville is only rated to Biological Safety Level BSL 3.

Just last year the world experienced laboratory infection spread from so called safety labs when a leaky aerosol chamber manufactured by the University of Wisconsin at Madison was responsible for three laboratory-acquired tuberculosis infections in a Seattle BSL-3 lab last year.

The same Madison chamber in use in the New Zealand BSL 3+ facility, full of seals and "O rings" made in the USA.

Do scientists tinkering with viruses and vaccines themselves; pose the real risk of mutating avian influenza?


Aerosal leaks in BSL containment
Ministry of Health New Zealand
Biological safety levels BSL 1 BSL2 BSL 3 BSL 4
Avian flu information

Chinese Brewing Benzene and Bird Flu

With 100 tonnes of deadly cancer causing Benzene spilling into water supplies for millions of Chinese, consideration should be given to the impact on H5N1 bird flu mutation.

Mutant cancer causing cells created by Benzene, when mixed with the current H5N1 avian bird flu strain, not yet deadly for humans, but themselves awaiting mutation to create a human pandemic, make for a deadly movie plot type scenario.

Surely the Chinese would not have caused this scenario to eradicate a hidden bird flu epidemic by poisoning millions of people. Yet the Chinese stories have some flaws, so far we have;
- A chemical plant explosion
- A truck crash filled with chemicals (ten truckloads)
- A dam wall break that was holding back chemicals

The Chinese government is however adamant there will be no cover-up and that they will punish severely any attempt to do this. Mysteriously though a senior official who told reporters that the explosion didn't cause any pollution has reportedly been found dead.

All is not what it seems here.

Reference:
Isn.ethz.ch/news
Leadingthecharge.com/stories
Chinapost.com
Bird flu information

California Thinking Clear on Bird Flu

California's Department of Health Services is taking action to encourage physicians not to dispense Tamiflu to patients.

The effects of this will be two fold, first allowing the state to maintain its stockpile of Tamiflu, second to prevent creating a possible breeding ground for avian influenza H5N1 through resistance to the drug in humans from overuse.

It's a gamble either way for the public, trust the officials or every man for himself.

Given the west coast being a prime target for the first port of call for bird flu due to it providing a gateway for travel to Asian countries it is however good to see officials taking charge.

Also in news from North California, the supposed bird flu found in turkeys whilst technically bird flu, is not the H5N1 strain that everyone is concerned about. Still makes a good news scare though.

References:
Bird flu information
Daily bulletin
MSN

Bird Flu Triggers Next Stock Market Crash

Airlines are likely to be the first hit from avian birdflu as borders and travel grind to a halt. The flow on effect into economies will be massive as restrictions are place on people, whether self-imposed or by regulation.

The worldwide share markets will commence dumping shares in the most affected markets, starting with travel. Large investors already have action plans waiting for the signal, likely to come from China with avian influenza mutation already reported.

But, it is not the large investors that will suffer given the resources they have to be prepared, the first to exit can bank their cash, instead it is the small investor that will suffer. To jump out now or wait is key decision.

Profiting from Pandemic
According to an Australian news source large investors are being prepared now to bail out of bird flu exposed shares.

Citygroup, a large worldwide investment firm has taken this to the extreme, in advising clients not only to reduce risk, also how to profit from a pandemic.

Risk mitigation strategies around the unknown timing of bird flu spread in humans, could trigger a stock market crash ahead of any outbreak, based on the actions of few large investors.

Is this the time to review alternative investments to shares, before the big boys bail?

Report on Citygroup's investor advice
Bird Flu Information

New Zealand Bans Tamiflu Importing & Sales

South Pacific country New Zealand has laws that actually make illegal the importation of Tamiflu a key drug for supressing the avian bird flu spread.

New Zealand's Medsafe principal technical adviser says that "Tamiflu was a prescription medicine and it was illegal for individuals to import prescription medicines."

At the same time the New Zealander public are being refused the ability to purchase the anti-viral drug Tamiflu through pharmacy or chemist, the legal option, until May next year.

How does this support the global fight to prevent avian bird flu h5n1 virus becoming a worldwide pandemic?

More on this ....
Manawatustandard
tvnz.co.nz